Formed by Hammers supporters Jack Elderton and Callum Goodall to offer their fellow fans in-depth but accessible analysis of their team and its players, Analytics United use performance analysis and data to examine how Newcastle United could approach their visit to London Stadium…
With three wins, three draws and three losses in the league so far this season, Newcastle have had a mixed start to their 2025/26 Premier League campaign. The loss of Alexander Isak to Liverpool was always going to bring a period of change, but with Nick Woltemade settling in well after his move from German club Stuttgart to the Premier League, and with Yoane Wissa and Lewis Hall soon to return from periods on the sidelines, things are beginning to look up on Tyneside.
When assessing Newcastle this season, there is no other place to start than with the change at the top of the pitch. Swedish superstar Isak had been directly involved in 43% of the team’s goals last season, and the impacts of his departure were always likely to be seismic. In signing Woltemade, however, Howe’s side have clearly found the best possible solution.
At 23, with just over 3,000 top-flight minutes, what Woltemade lacks in senior experience, he more than makes up for in potential. The German has that same rare physical combination of strength, height and speed with the kind of rounded profile that puts every top club on alert, and he truly announced himself across European football following his move to Stuttgart last summer, managing 17 goals and three assists across 33 appearances. Much like the departed Isak, Woltemade is technically capable in combination with his physical traits, allowing him to function as a drop-and-link player who can help create chances as well as finish them. Producing over two shots (2.05) and racking up 0.26 expected assisted goals (xAG) per 90, Woltemade was one of the top-performing creators last season in Germany, form that earned him his senior debut for the national side in the UEFA Nations League semi-final against Portugal in June.
Since arriving in the North East, there has been little to no dip in Woltemade’s productivity. Previous and current examples of heralded Germans arriving in the Premier League have shown just how difficult this transition can be. Timo Werner had lit the Bundesliga up with RB Leipzig but failed to produce the same form with Chelsea, Kai Havertz suffered a similar initial dip when he arrived in West London from Bayer Leverkusen, and even Florian Wirtz is struggling to record his typical final third output at Liverpool after leaving the BayArena. Woltemade is facing no such issues and already tops the charts as a finisher, scoring all three of his shots on target so far this season, showing that when given high quality opportunities, he rarely misses. Simultaneously, he also ranks highly for progressive passes amongst strikers (1.7 per 90, top 8%) and is completing an impressive 76.9% of his passes whilst opting for the kind of risk that produces 0.57 passes into the penalty area per 90 (top 14%).
Like any player in the Newcastle team, perhaps the most impressive thing about the German’s form since making the move to the Premier League, is his defensive work rate. Woltemade has some of the best numbers amongst forwards in the entire division, recording 0.38 tackles in the attacking third per 90 (top 3%) and 2.64 ball recoveries per 90 (top 8%). This effort level is something that is drilled into every player in Howe’s squad. Looking right across the team, we see individuals ranking highly in their positions for defensive disruption.
Former forward and current all-action number eight, Joelinton, is ranking in the top 12% of Premier League midfielders for middle third tackles so far this season (1.52 per 90) and, alongside midfield partner and fellow Brazilian, Bruno Guimarães, has the joint-most shots created from defensive interventions so far (2). Add in Guimarães’ terrier-like qualities, where he ranks fourth in the division for fouls (19), and Sandro Tonali’s 1.41 passes blocked per 90 (top 9%), and you begin to really see quite how committed and consistently impressive Newcastle are at haranguing the opposition and winning the ball back in the middle of the pitch.
This high-energy approach directly contributes to Newcastle boasting the league’s second-best defensive record this season, per expected goals conceded (0.78 per 90). The Magpies do an excellent job of limiting chance quality for their opposition with their average shot distance faced sitting at 17.7 yards (joint-second alongside Brentford) and the average opposition xG per shot being 0.08 (third behind rivals Sunderland and leaders Arsenal).
Their defensive dominance this season is even more impressive when you factor injuries to both starting full-backs and England internationals Tino Livramento and Lewis Hall. This has forced towering centre-back Dan Burn to left-back and Kieran Trippier back into the team on the right with summer signing Malick Thiaw coming into central defence at the same time. To experience this level of flux in the backline and to maintain such a high level of defensive performance at the same time, is testament to the work that Eddie Howe and Jason Tindall are doing at the team-level.
Thiaw stands out massively at the individual level with a 72.4% success rate in his 5.8 aerial duels contested per 90. This ranks above standout aerial defenders like James Tarkowski (70.9%) and Harry Maguire (70%) and is approaching the kind of levels we’ve gotten so used to seeing so regularly from Virgil van Dijk (78%). His introduction to the side from AC Milan has been incredibly smooth, and another summer signing, Anthony Elanga, has also hit the ground running. The Swedish speedster had a wonderful season last term with Nottingham Forest, helping the Tricky Trees back into European competition for the first time in 30 years under the watchful eye of new West Ham manager Nuno Espírito Santo. So far this season, Elanga ranks joint-top in the Newcastle squad for carries (17) and leads the way for completed crosses (5) - the kind of service that Chris Wood thrived on last year.
His competition in attack is stiff with Anthony Gordon, Harvey Barnes and Jacob Murphy all boasting the kind of pace and creative ability to bring Newcastle to life in transition. With deep competition across these positions, especially with Yoane Wissa set to return shortly, after he contributed to 35% of Brentford’s goals last season, Newcastle are well set to challenge on all fronts this year. Given the Magpies’ defensive dominance and West Ham’s faltering attack so far this season, Nuno must lean heavily on finding a way to physically compete and stay in the game with a strong defensive performance. For all the quality offered by those wide forwards, Gordon, Barnes and Elanga have all failed to produce a single goal contribution in the league yet. If Wissa isn’t quite up to speed and key creative full-backs are also making their way back from injury, the focus must be on combatting Woltemade’s talents in attack. If Nuno’s side can shut the German down and match Howe’s industrious midfield trio, the platform will be there for Jarrod Bowen and Crysencio Summerville to burst forward and create - giving ex-Newcastle striker Callum Wilson the chance to weave the kind of Premier League story we all know so well.
*The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of Analytics United and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of West Ham United.
