Formed by Hammers supporters Jack Elderton and Callum Goodall to offer their fellow fans in-depth but accessible analysis of their team and its players, Analytics United use performance analysis and data to examine West Ham United’s Carabao Cup opponents AFC Bournemouth…
After a slow start to last season left Bournemouth winless and in 19th place deep into October, Andoni Iraola’s side turned the corner in November. And with sudden clarity over style and system, massive developments came in execution and that nine-match winless run rapidly transformed into an equally exceptional unbeaten streak that continued right through to Boxing Day. Strangely enough, that oscillation from the sublime to the ridiculous became the story of the Cherries’ season as that run gave way to yet another seven-match winless streak before another five-match unbeaten run followed.
Surely, the plan for this season on the south coast will be to develop greater consistency in performance with hopes that will land on the positive side of things rather than the negative. And that might be more of a challenge than initially thought with talismanic striker Dominic Solanke trading The Vitality Stadium for The Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. The ex-Chelsea and Liverpool striker scored 21 goals in all competitions for Bournemouth last season with four assists and was a key part of everything that went well for Iraola’s side. Ghanaian forward Antoine Semenyo had a very promising season out on the right and it seemed initially that he would be given greater responsibility through the middle but the recent arrival of Brazilian striker Evanilson from Porto would suggest that the rest of the team could remain the same.
That’ll be without Tyler Adams again, at least for the time being, as the tough-tackling American midfielder is out once more with a back injury after playing all three matches in the USMNT’s underwhelming Copa América campaign that saw them out in the group stage with Panama finishing above them as runners up to losing semi-finalists and ultimate third-place finishers Uruguay. Whilst Adams remains a big loss, Alex Scott could take this opportunity to impress for the first team and the former Bristol City player, who was closely linked to West Ham before joining Bournemouth, didn’t waste any time with his display in the first match of this season against Nottingham Forest. Scott played six progressive passes, more than any other Bournemouth midfielder, and did so whilst retaining a 90.5% pass completion rate, 18% above his midfield partners. But it wasn’t his secure but progressive work in the centre of the park that was most impressive; instead it was his bright contribution to the Cherries’ counterpress that really stood out.
One thing that is non-negotiable in an Iraola team is a willingness to get after the ball, making intense efforts to win it back as quickly as possible. Bournemouth placed fourth in the Premier League last season for PPDA (9.48) – a metric designed to assess the intensity with which a team presses by looking at the number of passes the opposition is able to make before a defensive intervention occurs – only finishing behind Liverpool, Spurs, and Arsenal. And Iraola’s Rayo Vallecano side, the team he managed before he arrived on the south coast, were clocking in at a ridiculous 7.92, third in La Liga and hot on Barcelona’s heels. That shows the distance left to travel for Bournemouth as Iraola will want them to step up that off-ball aggression as much as possible to ensure they have the edge over other sides when it comes to the speed at which they engage.
Scott produced exactly what his Basque manager will be after in midfield against Nottingham Forest with six out of seven tackles completed (four more than any of his teammates), three blocked passes (the most on the pitch), three interceptions (also the most of any player on the pitch), and two tackles in the final third (again, the most of any player on the pitch). This preparedness for where the ball will go next in combination with the relentlessness required to always get there first, or in time to make an impact, is extremely important to Iraola and it’ll be interesting to see if Scott can keep his spot and build on that performance whilst Adams remains sidelined.
One negative consequence of this hammer and tongs style of play is that dribblers in central areas can have an outsized impact. With players steaming in towards the ball to try and force turnovers early, dribblers can be the elixir that managers coming up against such an intense off-ball side are looking for. This is because the system’s defensive success relies on the ability to force the ball backwards if turnovers aren’t possible and when dribblers get through the centre, it leaves the Bournemouth backline exposed and having to cover huge spaces defending against attackers now moving at speed.
It’s almost impossible to predict what starting lineups might look like for the second round of the Carabao Cup but this is where players like Emerson and Mohammed Kudus could come alive as both complete dribbles at higher rates than most other players in their positions and both also like to come into those central zones to carry. In particular, the Cherries look prone to midfield rotations in which a central midfielder runs out wide while the ball-carrying winger drives into the previously occupied space. Often, the Bournemouth central midfield players track the run from midfield, meaning a player with the carrying power of Kudus can dribble inwards with little to stop him. Emerson could also benefit from this movement, as once the ball is in central zones and the midfield runner has come back inside, there is a wealth of space for play to be switched back to the left flank.
Julen Lopetegui’s side may also look to capitalise on the adjustment period Bournemouth are currently working through in the wake of the Solanke’s departure. Whilst Semenyo had good moments as the lone centre-forward against Forest on the opening day, he soon found himself back out wide. And with Sinisterra and Ouattara rotating into the role without the target-man-like physical attributes typically required, there was little to find in the box.
While Bournemouth adjust in this area, West Ham may be best served targeting another weakness: poor performance in aerial duels. For the first round of fixtures, Bournemouth ranked joint bottom here with only 37.5% success, losing six more duels than the next nearest team (25 lost overall). When you consider the dominant aerial threats available to Lopetegui and his staff in Tomáš Souček, Niclas Füllkrug and Maximillian Kilman, it makes more and more sense for the wingers and full-backs to bombard the 18-yard box with crosses.
Like the first match of the Premier League season, this will be a fascinating game as two Gipuzkoan managers face-off with immensely talented players at their disposal and both will hope this will be the match that truly kickstarts a run of positive form that will lead their teams above and beyond previous finishes.
*The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of Analytics United and do not necessarily reflect the views opinions of West Ham United.
