Formed by Hammers supporters Jack Elderton and Callum Goodall to offer their fellow fans in-depth but accessible analysis of their team and its players, Analytics United use performance analysis and data to examine how West Ham United could play under new Head Coach Nuno...
West Ham United have announced the arrival of new Head Coach Nuno Espírito Santo. The Portuguese joins off the back of a successful period with Nottingham Forest where he guided the Reds from a relegation battle into the UEFA Europa League, a feat he also achieved with Wolverhampton Wanderers, having guided to promotion from the EFL Championship.
Typically opting for a counter-attacking style of football, Nuno will likely return to some of the ideas explored and developed by David Moyes when the Scot produced similar success at West Ham in his most recent stint, which could be instrumental in generating much-needed positive momentum through better results.
Star forward and captain Jarrod Bowen did manage to maintain high levels of productivity under both Julen Lopetegui and Graham Potter, but the change in style brought about by both managers led to a noticeable nosedive in some of the underlying numbers behind his performances. His non-penalty expected goals per shot (npxG/shot), which measures the quality of chances a player receives, dropped from an average of 0.12 across the five previous seasons, with peaks of 0.15 and 0.14 in the 2021/22 and 2023/24 campaigns, to 0.09 in 2024/5 and lower still to 0.06 so far this season.
If we haven’t been able to see him in truly unstoppable talismanic form of late, something he can manage consistently when given opportunities to make runs in behind opposition defences to score, this kind of performance could return under Nuno. Given a similar role at Wolves, the late Diogo Jota boasted an average chance quality of 0.16 between 2018 and 2020, and contributed 39 combined goals and assists across those two seasons in all competitions, an incredibly promising sign when assessing how Bowen’s form could shift under the Portuguese manager’s guidance.
Similarly, Niclas Füllkrug has struggled to produce the levels he maintained at Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund. Before signing for West Ham, his brilliant box movement, link-up play and finishing helped him return 41 combined goals and assists across his last two Bundesliga seasons, a total only beaten by Harry Kane (44) and Serhou Guirassy (42) in the same period. Since coming to West Ham, the German’s xG per 90 has halved from 0.5 in the 2023/24 Bundesliga season to 0.25 in the Premier League last year and his average chance quality has also suffered, dropping from an average of 0.16 across his final two years in Germany to 0.1 so far in the Premier League.
In complete contrast, target forwards Raúl Jiménez and Chris Wood produced their best top-flight scoring seasons under Nuno at Wolves and Forest respectively. Jiménez netted 17 league goals in 2019/20, while Wood surpassed that mark by scoring 20 in 2024/25. Both strikers profited greatly from their manager’s focus on wide overloads and high-quality delivery into the penalty area, allowing them to use their box movement and finishing qualities to devastating effect.
Nuno’s record with forwards opens real room for encouragement. He has only presided over one full league season where his starting striker finished with less than ten goals in the last ten years and has created far more positive npxG/shot averages for his forwards with Wood achieving an incredible 0.17 under his management last season. Others like Léo Bonatini and André Silva also both managed their second-best scoring seasons under Nuno’s tutelage at Wolves and Porto (12 and 16 respectively), showing a clear trend of improved striker performance under the Portuguese coach.
Another element likely to shift under Nuno’s management is the freedom afforded to defensive players to carry forward in transition and exploit momentary opportunities when the opposition turn the ball over. Previously, players like Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Maximilian Kilman may have been asked to be more conservative in these moments, opting to set-up longer phases of established possession in deeper areas rather than surging forwards to start counter-attacks. Under Nuno, these fantastic ball-carriers may be able to showcase those qualities far more often, and to great effect.
Thinking back to Bowen’s goal away at Crystal Palace last season, an August Goal of the Month nominee, we can find an example of Kilman securing possession on the edge of the box before charging past both Eberechi Eze and Adam Wharton to find Bowen, who then cut inside to score. These high-impact moments may have been somewhat limited under plans to spend more time on the ball in our own defensive third, and could expand under a manager who is more comfortable attacking more directly and dynamically in transition. Similar can be said for Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Kyle Walker-Peters who finished first and fourth for progressive carries amongst defenders that played more than ten games in the Premier League last season (3.52 and 3.14 per 90), qualities that we may get to see used to more effect under Nuno.
There could also be great benefits defensively as the team has struggled to find consistency from defensive set-pieces, an area in which Nuno’s teams have previously excelled. In fact, the job he did at Nottingham Forest in this area almost mirrors what will be expected of him in East London. Forest had conceded 22 goals from set-pieces by the end of the 2023/24 season, the worst record in the league. Nuno worked quickly to fix this key weakness, and the improvement was dramatic. His side reduced goals conceded from dead-ball situations rapidly in 2024/25, boasting the second-best defensive set-piece record through the opening seven gameweeks, conceding just once in this period.
Nuno is a coach with an incredible CV and a proven track record of reinvigorating clubs in difficult situations. He took Rio Ave from relegation battles to seventh place and the Taça de Portugal final before guiding Valencia from mid-table in La Liga to the Champions League. He led Wolves from the Championship to the Europa League and then transformed Nottingham Forest from repeated relegation battlers to European competitors. With a group of talented players that hasn’t quite been knitted together to produce results over recent seasons, Hammers fans can have hope that Nuno might just be the man to find that formula, improving performances and results to turn things around in East London.
*The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of Analytics United and do not necessarily reflect the views opinions of West Ham United.
