Formed by Hammers supporters Jack Elderton and Callum Goodall to offer their fellow fans in-depth but accessible analysis of their team and its players, Analytics United use performance analysis and data to examine how Burnley could approach their visit to London Stadium…
Having already won three games this season, Burnley have had a positive start to life back in the Premier League. Scott Parker’s Clarets have picked up vital wins over relegation threatened Wolves and fellow promoted clubs Leeds and Sunderland. With big wins like those, Parker’s side have built a platform to compete to stay in the division, whilst still needing to secure a couple of unexpected victories throughout what remains of the first half of the campaign.
With so many new players coming into the Burnley team, things have looked different this season when compared to their style and outcomes in the Championship. Last term, Burnley conceded just 16 goals all season in the second tier, putting together a record-smashing defensive campaign. This incredible form at the back could be attributed to the excellent performances produced by the defensive trio of Maxime Estève, CJ Egan-Riley and James Trafford. Clearly, one of the biggest challenges that Burnley were set to face this season was dealing with the losses of Trafford to Manchester City and Egan-Riley to Marseille.
In goal, things have continued apace with replacement Martin Dúbravka. The Slovakian ex-Newcastle and Manchester United goalkeeper currently ranks fifth for post-shot expected goals prevented (PSxG-P) this season, a metric that gives us an insight into the quality of shot-stopping work done by goalkeepers (+0.22). His heroics have been crucial in Burnley managing one of the best levels of defensively focused data-defying work so far this season, outperforming their non-penalty expected goals conceded by 5.1, a rate that would see them finish conceding 19 goals fewer than expected if sustained. Though this would be modified downwards to eight goals fewer if we stopped factoring the rate at which Parker’s side have been conceding own-goals.
In front of him, things have looked very different as Burnley have largely utilised a back four with only one consistent figure from last season in Estève. At right-back, Connor Roberts has been superseded by six-time Premier League and one-time Champions League winner Kyle Walker, whilst the left-back and right-centre-back positions have seen Lucas Pires and Egan-Riley replaced by Quilindschy Hartman and Axel Tuanzebe. Despite Walker’s previous achievements, Hartman has arguably been the most impressive of those three new faces. The Dutchman ditched current Eredivisie leaders Feyenoord for Lancashire and has hit the ground running with four assists already, ranking alongside Jack Grealish and Mohammed Kudus at the summit of the assists table, producing the best record amongst defenders.
In order to maintain their impressive defensive performance from last season, Burnley have focused intently on defending with numbers to avoid being overloaded in the Premier League. Where last season the Clarets could rely more on their quality and the incredible shot-stopping of James Trafford, this season there has been more emphasis on retaining width on the defensive line to plug gaps and make it impossible to find space in the channels. Most recently against Wolves, this saw returning winger Jacob Bruun Larsen utilised in almost a right-wing-back role without the ball whilst fellow summer arrival Florentino Luís regularly dropped into the backline to enable Hartman to defend more aggressively on the left.
These positional drops formed a shape that looked a little like a 6-1-3 against Wolves, a shape that enables Parker to mitigate against the overloading possible from typical 2-3-5 and 3-2-5 attacking shapes found in the Premier League. This would only be possible with a highly industrious midfield unit, something Parker has when Florentino is complemented by former Chelsea and Southampton destroyer Lesley Ugochukwu and West Ham Academy product Josh Cullen. All three midfielders rank extremely highly for defensive disruption, landing inside the top 20 players in their position for combined tackles and interceptions per 90: Florentino third (5.71), Ugochukwu tenth (3.79) and Cullen 20th (3.37).
Up front, much of the good work done so far this season can be at least in part credited to Jaidon Anthony. The former Bournemouth winger has seriously impressed since making the step up to the top-flight with Burnley and has already scored four goals, boasting the kind of final-third productivity that can transform a season for a newly promoted club. Anthony is Burnley’s key transitional outlet, often maintaining a high position on the left flank without the ball so that he can burst away and lead direct counter-attacks before involving the overlapping Hartman or turning inside to shoot.
If there are weaknesses in Burnley’s armour, they are almost certainly found in the half-spaces ahead of their adaptive backline. With Florentino regularly dropping in and Ugochukwu often stepping out to close the ball down, Cullen can easily become isolated in the centre between two stacked defensive lines. Finding routes to play inside can be a challenge against the positional discipline of the front three but in both Kyle Walker-Peters and Aaron Wan-Bissaka, West Ham boast two of the league’s better progressive enablers in the full-back positions. Both players demonstrate an exceptional level when it comes to reading opportunities to trigger wide combinations through inside passes and have excellent partners to combine with in Jarrod Bowen and Mateus Fernandes.
If Nuno Espírito Santo’s side want to back up last weekend’s impressive victory over Newcastle, performance at right-back will be critical. If Anthony’s strengths in attack can be controlled, and communication is maintained to track Hartman, a defensive platform will be in place for whichever right-back is selected to bring forth their instrumental qualities in middle-third progression. With Lucas Paquetá and Callum Wilson hitting improved form, the team may finally be finding the right balance to produce the kind of counter-attacking performance that Nuno has been known for across his time in the Premier League. In any case, this is a crucial match for both sides where the points won and lost will go a long way towards defining the next stages of the season for each team.
*The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of Analytics United and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of West Ham United.
