Formed by Hammers supporters Jack Elderton and Callum Goodall to offer their fellow fans in-depth but accessible analysis of their team and its players, Analytics United use performance analysis and data to examine how Chelsea could approach Friday’s visit to London Stadium…
Managed by Manuel Pellegrini’s former coach at West Ham United, Enzo Maresca, Chelsea started their 2025/26 season with a disappointing 0-0 draw against FA Cup and Community Shield winners Crystal Palace last weekend. After finishing fourth last year, the Blues will have ambitions of consolidating their position inside the top five and competing deep into the UEFA Champions League having beaten current champions, Paris Saint-Germain, in the Club World Cup final this summer.
As is to be expected, Chelsea have spent big in another summer transfer window with major signings like João Pedro and Jamie Gittens coming into the side from Brighton and Borussia Dortmund respectively. Those two came in to start their first game against Palace, but it was a substitute performance from fellow summer signing, Estêvão, that really caught the eye. The Brazilian wonderkid replaced Gittens in the second half and looked a real livewire in an otherwise uninspiring performance as he brought Chelsea to life in the wide areas and began to turn the game in the Blues’ favour.
His inclusion could be transformational for Maresca’s side given one of the key elements that was sometimes lacking last season was consistency in 1v1 production from wide. With Maresca preferring to overload the centre of the pitch with as many bodies as possible, it’s vitally important that Chelsea’s width-holders in attack are able to generate upside as often as possible when found 1v1 against defenders in the final third. And with Noni Madueke having departed for Arsenal, it was crucial that Chelsea signed a replacement with the ability to change the pace of the game in an instant as a dribbler, creator of chances and scorer of goals.
Estêvão might still be just 18, but the youngster already looks like he could quickly become one of the first names on the teamsheet in blue. Looking back at the data he recorded with Palmeiras in Brazil makes it easy to see why too. Across the next 14 leagues worldwide beneath Europe’s top five, Estêvão has ranked as the outright best attacking midfielder for goals, combined expected goals and assists, progressive carries, take-on attempts, progressive receptions and carries into the penalty area per 90. These are incredible data-points for someone so young and Chelsea fans will be excited to see more of the Brazilian over coming weeks as he is integrated into the team.
His directness and comfort with chalk on his boots dovetails well with Maresca’s usage of Reece James as a third centre-back in build-up. James has had injury issues over recent seasons but has always displayed the quality to impact in central areas and is a crucial part of the Chelsea back three whilst Tosin Adarabioyo and Levi Colwill remain sidelined with injuries.
As Chelsea found against Palace at the weekend, having the ability to break lines from defence is central to their chances of breaking through the opposition block and not becoming predictably reliant on their wingers to generate upside via dribbles when playing around it instead.
Adarabioyo and Colwill ranked first and second amongst Chelsea outfielders last season for yards gained via pass per 90 last season whilst boasting impressive overall pass completion rates of 91.1% and 89.3%. Missing both simultaneously has a big impact on Chelsea’s ability to break through central areas and access Cole Palmer between the lines, where he is most dangerous. As such, the burden of responsibility for James is significantly increased. He ranked third for yards gained via pass per 90 at Chelsea last season but would have to up his contribution by at least 20% to compensate for the loss of those two whilst hoping that young Joshua Acheampong, who had a great game defensively against Jean-Philippe Mateta, can develop the confidence to take a few more risks quickly.
One other thing that helped Chelsea against Palace, when struggling to break through the centre against a stubborn back three system, was bringing yet another summer signing on, in Liam Delap, to replace João Pedro in the second half. Pedro has shone in the summer, scoring three goals in the Club World Cup semi-final and final, but was unable to disrupt the box as much as Delap could when he came on. The young Englishman contributed his typical physically disruptive qualities, looking to charge into the channels where possible and compete for duels with Palace centre-back Maxence Lacroix. His late inclusion gave Chelsea the opportunity to skip out difficult build-up and look for more direct balls to the frontline.
If Graham Potter’s team want a quick antidote to an opening weekend defeat at Sunderland, it’ll be tough to find that against Chelsea. The Blues have an incredible cast of attacking talent, one of the best transition-killing midfielders in Moisés Caicedo and a goalkeeper that has come out of the Club World Cup in top form. In order to get a positive result, inspiration can be drawn from the kind of discipline and togetherness Palace showed without the ball last weekend.
From their 3-4-3 base shape, Oliver Glasner’s team worked incredibly hard to stop passes into Chelsea’s midfield, preventing central progression with their wingers shadowing potential receivers and their wing-backs narrowing to protect if the ball did go through. This had to be combined with the hard yards required to race out and defend against Chelsea’s wingers when the Blues then opted to play around rather than through. Wing-backs and wingers worked hard together to turn 1v1s into 2v1s and wide-centre-backs showed the understanding necessary to step up to newly freed central options or cover wide when their teammates had been drawn inside.
West Ham showed this kind of discipline in the first half against Sunderland but will need to put together a complete 90-minute performance to get a good result on Friday night. With the forward-breaking quality of Aaron Wan-Bissaka, El Hadji Malick Diouf and Jarrod Bowen, facilitated by the incisive qualities of Niclas Füllkrug and Lucas Paquetá, there are chances to be found against a depleted Chelsea defence. Get the defensive side right and those opportunities might just be enough to secure a much-needed victory, bringing the positives of pre-season to the Premier League.
*The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of Analytics United and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of West Ham United.
