Formed by Hammers supporters Jack Elderton and Callum Goodall to offer their fellow fans in-depth but accessible analysis of their team and its players, Analytics United use performance analysis and data to examine how West Ham United could use a repeat performance to defeat Roberto De Zerbi’s side on Tuesday evening...
After enduring a horrendous run of form against Brighton from 2017-23 (zero wins, six draws, and six losses), West Ham finally broke the curse with a 3-1 win at The Amex earlier this season. In order to prepare for today’s fixture, it’s worth going back to that game to look at what finally went right against the Seagulls and explore elements that might be replicable.
Roberto De Zerbi’s side have pushed through the first half of the season impressively and are well-placed to compete for European qualification via league position whilst having also progressed to the Europa League round of 16. The Italian’s side have effectively become direct rivals for West Ham in the league and that makes this as close to a six-pointer as you can get in the fight for the last spots in the top seven.
Back in August, David Moyes’ side put on a counter-attacking clinic on the south coast with two of the three goals coming from turnovers and counters that followed. James Ward-Prowse won the ball back for the first and played it in behind for Michail Antonio to chase before latching onto the Jamaican’s eventual ball across, and then Antonio secured possession just outside his own penalty area before finding Saïd Benrahma who dropped an inch-perfect crossfield pass into Jarrod Bowen for the winger to slot home. The third was just as direct, with Alphonse Areola finding Bowen from a goal kick and Bowen whipping a ball into Antonio for the Jamaican to do the rest (an understatement given that this was one of the best finishes we’ve seen from any West Ham player this season).
In truth, Brighton have been slightly soft to counters all season. Where Moyes’ side have let just 26.8% of their opponent’s counters be converted into shots, Brighton have conceded shots from almost half of the counter-attacks they’ve faced (48.8%) – a positive match-up for the Hammers given their outstanding 54.6% counter-to-shot rate in the Premier League this season. Similarly, Brighton have been insecure from corners with 37.5% of their corners faced leading to shots, a figure considerably worse than West Ham have recorded defensively (26.9%) and another positive match-up for Moyes with his side managing a 33.7% corner-to-shot rate in attack. Effectively, this season, De Zerbi’s team are a little soft to the things that this West Ham team are really good at.
That was on show in the first fixture as Moyes chose not to step out and press against De Zerbi’s infamous slow build-up routine and Brighton found it difficult to break through the Hammers’ disciplined 4-1-4-1 shape, where Edson Álvarez excelled in a number six role dropping between the centre-backs when necessary to track teenage sensation Evan Ferguson and veteran striker Danny Welbeck, stopping the pair from generating dangerous situations by preventing balls into their feet. Brighton’s build-up play typically looks to draw opposition pressers out to create the space to play through the centre before unlocking the pace of players like Kaoru Mitoma and Simon Adingra out wide but the Seagulls were blunted by West Ham’s refusal to engage in this match.
Consequently, West Ham were able to dig in to some of the corresponding weaknesses of De Zerbi’s style and space in behind and outside their own rest defensive unit was a huge problem for them. With James Milner chosen to start at right-back, and Pascal Groß selected ahead, Brighton desperately missed the presence of an elite defensive midfielder and found themselves in several situations where their lack of recovery pace in defensive transition was ruthlessly exposed.
Things have changed since then, though, and experimentation has been constant as De Zerbi has shuffled the deck in his lineup throughout the season. A hefty injury list has compounded this constant changing and Brighton are expected to be without several players for this one with Mitoma, Adingra, Ansu Fati, Julio Enciso, Joël Veltman, Adam Webster, Solly March, and Tariq Lamptey all recently sidelined with various issues. In their recent fixture against Crystal Palace, we saw Brighton line-up slightly differently to the side that played us in August with Igor Julio coming in at left-back and formulating more of a 3-2-5 in-possession shape rather than the 2-3-5 we faced previously.
This changes several things. Firstly, with three players on the deepest line, Brighton are able to better protect themselves against counters as the three centre-backs are more able to shift across and cover space effectively. Secondly, they’re more able to draw pressure and progress through the centre of the pitch as Billy Gilmour and Carlos Baleba attract their markers forward before bouncing passes back into the defenders with clean angles to play through. And thirdly, with a defensively competent midfield duo, they’re also better protected immediately post-turnover in central areas, as they have a more compact midfield unit to protect the backline rather than the stretched three we saw in the first game with Estupiñán having to cover lots of space to help others.
This is bound to be a tight game but West Ham would be wise to draw from their previous experiences against Brighton and stick to the shape rather than attempting to step out and disrupt too much. By sitting off that first line of Brighton’s build-up, Moyes’ side will be able to utilise the intercepting ability of Ward-Prowse, Tomáș Souček, and Álvarez to launch counter-attacking situations from which the forwards can profit.
*The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of Analytics United and do not necessarily reflect the views opinions of West Ham United.
