Formed by Hammers supporters Jack Elderton and Callum Goodall to offer their fellow fans in-depth but accessible analysis of their team and its players, Analytics United provide content for the Club's official website, app, Official Programme and social media channels.
Today, Analytics United use performance analysis and data to examine the contribution Callum Wilson could make to West Ham United...
West Ham United have completed the signing of Callum Wilson on a free transfer after his departure from Newcastle United at the end of the 2024/25 season. The former England international joins to provide competition up front alongside Niclas Füllkrug, Jarrod Bowen and Lucas Paquetá, bringing experience and reliability to the attack. Across his ten-season Premier League career, Wilson has maintained an impressive goalscoring and assisting rate of approximately one in two.
To assess Wilson’s profile through data, we have to look back to the 2022/23 season, the last time he played more than 1,000 league minutes. Since then, injuries and the incredible form of Swedish superstar striker, Alexander Isak, have limited his time on the pitch. But in 2022/23, Wilson was imperious as Newcastle’s starting striker, scoring 18 league goals and playing a pivotal role in their push for Champions League qualification. That season, he ranked among the Premier League’s best for some of the most important metrics for strikers.
One of Wilson’s standout attributes is his reliability in front of goal. While he may not consistently overperform his expected goals (xG) return like the world’s most elite finishers, he rarely underperforms either. In the eight seasons of available Opta data, he’s only fallen one goal short of his xG in two seasons, and has never finished more than two behind.
In 2022/23, this consistency in front of goal was particularly evident, with Wilson scoring 21% of his shots (0.21 goals per shot), meaning roughly one in five of his efforts found the back of the net. Only five Premier League strikers were able to better this feat: Taiwo Awoniyi (0.29), Roberto Firmino (0.28), Erling Haaland (0.25), Carlos Vinícius (0.24) and Yoane Wissa (0.22). But Wilson separates himself from most of that group through the volume of chances and non-penalty expected goals (npxG) he accumulates. This differentiating factor put him in an elite group, joined only by Haaland and Harry Kane, who managed more than 14 npxG while maintaining a 0.20+ goals-per-shot rate.
Despite injury setbacks, Wilson posted similarly strong underlying numbers in 2023/24. In fact, only Isak and Chris Wood matched his blend of shot quality and finishing output across limited minutes.
Much of this stems from his smart shot selection and movement inside the box. Wilson tends to avoid speculative long-range efforts, instead focusing on sharp bursts around the six-yard box and penalty spot. The result is consistent, higher quality chances. In 2022/23, he averaged 0.22 npxG per shot, a mark matched only by Jamie Vardy, while Wilson was unrivalled in 2023/24. With the arrival of creative wing-backs El Hadji Malick Diouf and Kyle Walker-Peters, who recorded 0.16 and 0.17 xA per 90 respectively over the past two seasons, Wilson’s strengths could be maximised in this system.
Importantly, Wilson is more than just a finisher. In both seasons where he played over 1,000 minutes at Newcastle, he produced five assists, regularly showing the presence of mind to spot cutbacks to better-placed teammates. One of the most high-profile examples came for England at the 2022 World Cup, when he selflessly squared for Jack Grealish against Iran after breaking through on goal.
Of course, every player has shortcomings, and while hold-up play isn’t Wilson’s biggest strength, he mitigates this by drawing fouls in dangerous areas, a valuable trait to have, and something we’ve seen Paquetá do particularly well in pre-season when dropping out of the front two. In 2022/23, Wilson won 1.49 fouls per 90, and nearly a third of those free-kicks led to chances, aided by the first-rate delivery of Kieran Trippier. Graham Potter will hope for similar success with James Ward-Prowse’s deadball expertise, and the significant aerial threat that Tomáš Souček and Füllkrug provide.
Another underrated part of Wilson’s game is his ability to beat a defender, particularly in congested penalty areas. In 2022/23, he averaged 0.29 shots from take-ons per 90, highlighting his knack for making something happen inside the box, even if he’s less involved in build-up deeper down the pitch.
With 239 Premier League appearances and 113 goal contributions, Wilson is a proven and experienced performer at the highest level. He adds further quality to a forward group that already looks strong for 2025/26, with Füllkrug, Bowen and young Callum Marshall, all senior internationals in the past year, shining in pre-season.
*The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of Analytics United and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of West Ham United.
