Formed by Hammers supporters Jack Elderton and Callum Goodall to offer their fellow fans in-depth but accessible analysis of their team and its players, Analytics United use performance analysis and data to examine how Spurs could approach their visit to London Stadium…
Despite winning the UEFA Europa League last season, a 17th-place Premier League finish wasn’t enough to keep Australian manager Ange Postecoglou in post come the summer. Instead, chairman Daniel Levy – who himself departed last week – decided to pivot and recruit Thomas Frank from Brentford. The Dane had done a brilliant job in bringing the Bees from the Championship to the Premier League before quickly stabilising in the top division, exceeding external expectations.
Perhaps the most impressive thing about Frank’s tenure with Brentford was his seamless switch of style from a possession-dominant 4-3-3, that saw his side finish with an xG difference (the gap between the cumulative quality of chances made against the cumulative quality of chances conceded) almost double that of 100-point Burnley last season (35.5 compared to 18.7), to a counter-attacking 3-5-2 that got the best out of Bryan Mbeumo’s qualities on the break. This change showed an appreciation for the difference in the challenge of the Premier League, a flexibility and willingness to adapt, and an understanding of how to continue to platform his players in the best way possible through such sweeping adaptations.
In contrast to both the 4-3-3 of 2020/21 and the 3-5-2 of 2021/22, Brentford finished last season playing a 4-2-3-1 that seemingly drew inspiration from the success that Roberto De Zerbi had with Brighton. The Italian’s side had carved out a path for generating counter-attacking conditions whilst dominating the ball – a solution to questions typically asked of teams that prefer to counter-attack following positive league finishes when the opposition sit off and concede possession – finishing the 2022/23 season with the third-highest average possession in the Premier League (60.2%) whilst consistently generating direct attack conditions from which wingers like Kaoru Mitoma, Solly March and Leandro Trossard could profit. Their success was built on a build-up approach that incentivised opposition pressure before connecting quickly through the midfield and moving the ball wide where wingers could receive with open space ahead, like they would in a normal counter-attack.
Frank’s implementation of these ideas at Brentford saw goalkeeper Mark Flekken finish with far and away the most passes attempted in the league (1,498) as the centre-backs split deep and wide to draw the defensive side forward, whilst Mikkel Damsgaard exploited the consequential spaces between the lines to spin and find one of Yoane Wissa, Kevin Schade or Mbeumo in behind. Considering Spurs’ squad – which contains direct wingers like Brennan Johnson and Mohammed Kudus, a star between the lines in Xavi Simons and talented build-up full-backs in Pedro Porro, Destiny Udogie and Djed Spence – it’s clear to see how this approach could work in north London.
In order for this to happen, Kudus and Simons must hit the ground running as they replace Spurs’ two top contributors of combined goals and assists from last season in new LAFC signing Son Heung-min (16) and injured James Maddison (16). And big deadline-day loan signing Randal Kolo Muani will need to contribute better levels of consistent production than Dominic Solanke and Richarlison have managed thus far in Tottenham white. The big positive there is the Frenchman’s underlying data, which despite his lack of consistent involvement since moving to PSG from Eintracht Frankfurt two seasons ago, has continued to impress. If he can maintain his top 1% finishing from his Juventus stint last season (+0.24 npxG overperformance per 90) alongside his top 7% goalscoring rate (0.62 goals per 90) then Spurs might just be onto a winner.
One player sure to profit from the change of manager is the man who scored the winning goal in the Europa League final: Brennan Johnson. The Welsh winger has already scored twice this season after finishing last season as Spurs’ top Premier League goalscorer (11) with top 5% data for npxG (0.43 per 90) and the joint-third-best average chance quality in the division (0.19 xG/shot), level with Norwegian strikers Erling Haaland and Jørgen Strand Larsen. His pace, box movement and finishing make him perfectly suited to a more direct attacking style. Equally, full-backs Porro, Udogie and Spence should also thrive as Frank enables them to continue to contribute their high levels of progression alongside their positive ball-carrying and creative attributes. One player who will remain vitally important regardless is Cristian Romero. The Argentine centre-back missed 27 games last season and Spurs will need him to be fit this time given the impossibility of replacing a player who ranks inside the top 20% for tackles, interceptions, yards gained via pass and yards gained via carry.
If there are weaknesses to exploit, Bournemouth certainly found those in the final match before the international break. Andoni Iraola’s side pressed intensely against Spurs’ build-up and forced them away from their right side, where Romero’s brilliance in build-up and Kudus’ impressive hold-up and carrying can combine, and onto their left side where Spence and Johnson prefer to attack more directly. Maintaining clear pressure on loan single-pivot João Palhinha made it difficult for the Portuguese to switch the play, leaving Spurs unable to get out successfully, recording just one shot on target in the entire match.
If executing such an approach would’ve been challenging previously due to lack of legs in Graham Potter’s midfield, new signings Soungoutou Magassa and Mateus Fernandes will hope to address that. Fernandes ran himself into the ground in his first appearance against Nottingham Forest, recording seven recoveries, three tackles and one interception, and adding Magassa’s top 5% rates across Europe’s top five leagues for all three should enable more aggressive defensive approaches.
Whatever the case, Potter’s side can hope to exploit space behind Spurs’ full-backs on the break with Jarrod Bowen and Crysencio Summerville both available together, at last, on the flanks. Summerville was brilliant in the final exchanges at the City Ground last time out, contributing for all three goals racing into the space behind Ola Aina as the Forest right-back looked to bomb on and support attacks. With Porro certain to do the same for Spurs, the Dutch winger will be hopeful of delivering once again on the promise of ‘showtime’ on his return.
*The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of Analytics United and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of West Ham United.
