Formed by Hammers supporters Jack Elderton and Callum Goodall to offer their fellow fans in-depth but accessible analysis of their team and its players, Analytics United provide content for the Club's official website, app, Official Programme and social media channels.
Today, Analytics United use performance analysis and data to examine the contribution Mateus Fernandes could make to West Ham United...
West Ham United have announced the signing of Mateus Fernandes from Southampton. The 21-year-old midfielder joins after impressing for the Saints last season.
Fernandes consistently stood out as a diamond in the rough after signing from Sporting CP last summer. That came after a season-long loan with Estoril where Fernandes cut his teeth in senior football, often featuring in central midfield alongside Santos loanee Zanocelo and showing off his ability as a ball-winner and progressive carrier.
These qualities carried into his time in the Premier League where he was used across the midfield, out wide and even up front as Southampton desperately searched for solutions last season. Despite the positional switches, one thing that consistently stood out was Fernandes’ ball-carrying as he ranked in the top 11% for successful take-ons amongst midfielders and in the top 13% for carries into the final third. Comparing his 2.17 carries into the final third per 90 with West Ham’s top producers in this area last season, Fernandes outranks central midfielders like James Ward-Prowse (1.39) and Lucas Paquetá (1.29) and even bests squad-leader Mohammed Kudus (2.05).
One of the concerns heading into this season was the loss of the Ghanaian's carrying qualities and West Ham risked becoming a bit predictable regarding access routes to the final third without him. In Fernandes, West Ham have not only recruited someone who can contribute some of what Kudus did but have added someone that can bring those qualities in more central areas in combination with significant off-ball activity that will help the team be just as dynamic out of possession.
Without the ball, Fernandes ranked alongside some of the Premier League’s biggest names for combined defensive actions. His 2.75 tackles per 90 ranked in the top 26% amongst midfielders and his 5.54 ball recoveries per 90 landed in the top 31%. Adding interceptions and combining all three metrics, Fernandes (9.17) ranked alongside Ryan Gravenberch (9.18), Alexis MacAllister (9.17), Pape Matar Sarr (9.11) and Sandro Tonali (8.97) for overall defensive activity whilst outranking all but Gravenberch for progressive distance carried per 90 (97.3 yards).
Comparing his defensive activity to the West Ham squad from last season, Fernandes immediately ranks top with only Lucas Paquetá (8.82) close to matching the Portuguese’s bite in midfield. No single West Ham player won more tackles (1.49 per 90) and only Guido Rodríguez ranked alongside him for passes blocked (1.09 per 90); huge positives for a player that adds so much in attack before even considering the defensive side of the game.
Moving on to what Fernandes is able to do in the final third, we can immediately see positive creative data in his 0.28 through balls, 0.11 expected assists (xA), 1.05 key passes and 2.41 shot-creating actions per 90. These above-average metrics represent significant achievements for a player playing for a team that was only able to score 26 goals last season, the fewest in the league, with just 3% of their total touches being inside the opposition penalty area, ahead of only Leicester City (2.9%). These features are key in any side but hugely important for a West Ham team that has lacked true creative spark beyond Paquetá and Jarrod Bowen, who arguably do their best work progressing to the final third and scoring goals respectively. With Fernandes now joining fellow summer signing El Hadji Malick Diouf, the aforementioned duo may be able to spend more time in their best areas as the creative burden is shared more evenly across the team.
We’ve established Fernandes’ outstanding ability as both a ball-carrier and ball-winner but the young Portuguese midfielder is also a talented progressor via pass, where his 4.49 progressive passes per 90 beat the numbers produced by players like Boubacar Kamara (4.43), Carlos Baleba (3.99) and Kobbie Mainoo (3.55). His talent in this area makes him a rare two-way progressor in central midfield where he ranks alongside Paquetá in the West Ham squad for total progressive actions (6.85 per 90) but in a very select group of Premier League midfielders more broadly; players producing more than six progressive actions per game with over 30% of those coming via carry, indicating an exceptional ability to progress both ways with equal skill. There are only five players regularly featuring as eights or sixes in this category: Declan Rice, İlkay Gündoğan, Lucas Bergvall, Dominik Szoboszlai and, of course, Mateus Fernandes.
In summary, Fernandes is clearly a special talent in midfield. Few other under-21 players can replicate his even mix of progressive contribution with his creative qualities and high levels of defensive activity. With Graham Potter opting to use a midfield three this season, Fernandes fortifies this unit with his forward-breaking ability enabling rapid progression to the final third after line-breakers connect from the backline to the forwards. Not only will he add dynamic central progression but he will help Potter’s side create more with more consistency whilst also improving overall control thanks to his ground coverage, counter-pressing and ball-winning qualities.
At 21 years of age and with plenty of room still to improve, Hammers fans should feel excited about the future of a midfield department containing serious young talents in Freddie Potts, Lewis Orford, George Earthy and now Mateus Fernandes.
*The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of Analytics United and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of West Ham United.
